AI Futures Project now expects a superhuman AI researcher in 2027, citing METR's Anthropic estimate
All of the group's forecasters now put a Superhuman AI Researcher at some point in 2027 and give a 35–65% chance that AI able to automate all white-collar work arrives before 2028.
Why it matters
The authors of the AI 2027 scenario had pushed their timelines back; this update pulls them forward again. Previously even Daniel Kokotajlo, the most bullish of them, gave 50% to a Superhuman AI Researcher only before 2029. The biggest input was METR's estimate that Anthropic is making AI progress about twice its historical rate, which the group reads as a 1.7x AI-driven speed-up, five months ahead of its own scenario. The group calls for a pause or pacing of frontier development. Watch whether labs or METR dispute the reading.
Key facts
- All forecasters now expect a Superhuman AI Researcher in 2027
- 35–65% chance of AI automating all white-collar work before 2028
- Previous most bullish forecast: 50% before 2029
- METR: Anthropic progressing about 2x its historical rate
- Group estimates a 1.7x AI-attributable acceleration
- Published 10 Nov 2026 by Lifland, Halstead, Kokotajlo and Dean