奇点时钟：AGI 何时到来？
奇点时钟把六项关于通用人工智能何时到来的公开预测（Metaculus、Manifold、METR 的任务时长趋势、AI 2027，以及前沿实验室负责人给出明确日期的预测）合成为一个日期，并显示距离它还有多远：表盘上一小时代表一年。预测变化时，时钟随之变化。
直播奇点时钟
1:51距午夜
1年308天--:--:--
六项 AGI 预测的综合日期：2028年9月6日
各项预测
| Input | Date | Weight | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metaculus: Date of AGI (community median) | 2030-09-18 | 3 | verified |
| Metaculus: weakly general AI (median) | 2027-08-28 | 2 | verified |
| METR task-horizon trend: month-long tasks at 50% reliability | 2027-06 | 3 | verified |
| AI 2027 scenario headline | 2027 | 1 | verified |
| Manifold: AGI When? market | 2031 | 1 | verified |
| Frontier-lab leadership public statements, median | 2027-10 | 2 | verified |
时钟的变化
| Changed | 综合日期 | 距午夜（年） |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 04:16 UTC | 2028-09-06 | 1.84 |
| 2026-11-02 03:40 UTC | 2028-08-06 | 1.76 |
| 2026-11-02 03:29 UTC | 2028-09-06 | 1.84 |
| 2026-10-30 16:30 UTC | 2028-11-08 | 2.02 |
方法
Each input is a public estimate of when general or transformative AI arrives, weighted by how much evidence sits behind it. The clock takes the weighted mean of the verified inputs’ dates; inputs not yet verified are listed but do not move the hands. One hour on the face is one year: 4:30 to midnight means the composite date is four and a half years away. A source that gives only a year is entered as 1 July of that year, the unbiased midpoint.
表盘上的一小时等于一年。 · 更新于 2026-11-02