UBS raises its AI capex forecast to $1.0 trillion for 2026 and $1.4 trillion for 2027
The bank's post-midterm note, reported by investingLive, says state and local rules matter more than Congress for data centres; the full note is not public.
Why it matters
The forecast arrived as chip and AI stocks sold off after the Democratic sweep of the US midterms, with Korea's KOSPI later falling more than 4%. UBS argues that the election brings legislative friction rather than a reversal of policy, and that the real risk to data-centre spending sits in state and local decisions, such as the moratoriums voters backed in Texas and Ohio. It names 2027 debt-ceiling talks as the main bond risk. Watch whether hyperscaler capex guidance next quarter matches the $1.4 trillion figure.
Key facts
- AI capex forecast: $1.0 trillion in 2026
- AI capex forecast: $1.4 trillion in 2027
- State rules seen as bigger data-centre risk than Congress
- 2027 debt-ceiling talks flagged as main bond risk
- UBS stays constructive on equities