At least 15% of China's 150-plus humanoid robot makers will fail or merge within three years, GGII forecasts
The research firm expects Chinese humanoid shipments to top 50,000 this year, nearly triple last year's 18,000, but says most robots only do basic tasks and factory adoption lags production.
Why it matters
China has led the world in humanoid robot output, but this forecast from GGII, presented at its Shenzhen conference and reported by Yicai, says supply is running ahead of real factory use. Prices for robot joint modules fell about 30% this year, and ITjuzi counts embodied-AI funding deals down 45% last month, from 60 to 33. A shakeout would leave fewer, better-funded makers. Watch which firms consolidate first and whether factory deployments, such as recent multi-hour shift demonstrations, turn into paid contracts at scale.
Key facts
- 150+ humanoid makers in China
- At least 15% to fail or merge within three years
- 2026 shipments forecast above 50,000, vs 18,000 last year
- Market expected above 10 billion yuan
- Joint-module prices down about 30% this year
- Embodied-AI funding deals down 45% last month, 60 to 33 (ITjuzi)